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Insight & Outlook: Fidelity Market Signals Weekly
Introducing new weekly insights from Fidelity Institutional's (FI) Capital Markets Strategy Group covering the latest market trends, economic developments, and key factors shaping investment decisions—all to help you and your clients navigate the markets with confidence.
Understanding the adage, "buy the rumor, sell the news"
Markets have already priced in geopolitical risk and have moved on to fundamentals, reinforcing the importance of portfolio construction.
This past week is a reminder that markets don’t necessarily respond to geopolitical headlines the way conventional wisdom might suggest. Instead, they respond to what has already been priced in and how new information affects inflation, growth, and policy expectations.
Markets are ruthlessly efficient at exposing where the vulnerabilities are. Quite often, the susceptibilities are priced in even before the shock and impact, and when the market-moving event hits the tapes, the reaction function actually moves in the opposite direction. Hence the adage, “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
Exhibit 1 illustrates this trend, where gold, defense stocks, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury all rallied in the weeks leading up to the Iran conflict on February 28. Then, despite heightened headlines around the oil conflict, several “expected” trades moved in the opposite direction: gold pulled back, defense stocks consolidated, and Treasury yields moved higher. This reflected positioning and macro dynamics rather than a shift in underlying risk appetite.
Exhibit 1: Despite heightened headlines around the oil conflict, several “expected” trades moved in the opposite direction after the Iran conflict began on February 28.
Source: Fidelity Investments, Bloomberg Finance LP. New York spot gold prices, the DJ U.S. Select Aerospace and Defense Index, and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury. See endnotes for index definition. 1/2/26 through 3/23/26.
Gold: Safe haven, but not a one-way trade
Gold initially rallied as geopolitical risk intensified, reflecting early positioning. As the conflict moved from speculation to reality, prices retraced amid profit-taking, a firmer U.S. dollar, and higher Treasury yields. In the current environment, gold’s short-term performance is being driven less by fear and more by:
- Real interest rates
- Liquidity conditions
- Investor positioning
Portfolio perspective:
Gold continues to play an important role as a diversifier. Gold remains a core strategic asset, supported by fiscal dominance, global money supply growth, and geopolitical fragmentation. Near-term moves, however, are unlikely to be linear. Disciplined sizing and a longer-term view remain key.
10 year Treasury yields: Inflation still matters more than fear
Contrary to traditional risk-off behavior, Treasury yields rose during the escalation. Markets remain focused on the inflationary implications of energy volatility and how that feeds into monetary policy expectations.
This dynamic highlights an important shift:
- Bonds are acting more as inflation barometers than geopolitical shock absorbers.
- Duration sensitivity remains elevated when inflation risks re-emerge.
Portfolio perspective:
Fixed income positioning continues to require balance. Relying on bonds alone for downside protection may prove less effective in inflation-sensitive environments when stocks and bonds become positively correlated.
Defense stocks: Expectations meet valuations
Aerospace and defense stocks rallied earlier as markets anticipated increased defense spending tied to geopolitical developments. As those expectations became embedded in prices, momentum slowed. The focus has now shifted from headlines to fundamentals:
- Contract visibility
- Earnings delivery
- Cash flow durability
Portfolio perspective:
Defense remains a structural global theme, but future returns will be more dependent on execution than escalation, hence active stock selection is key. Periods of consolidation should be viewed through a valuation and fundamentals lens.
Bottom line
Markets didn’t ignore geopolitical risk—they priced it early and moved on to fundamentals. For investors, this reinforces the importance of portfolio construction over prediction, especially when macro forces intersect with geopolitical events.
What we’re watching next week
Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain focused on a few key areas:
- Energy prices: Sustained moves higher would keep inflation expectations—and rates—under pressure.
- Inflation data: Any signs of re-acceleration could reinforce recent moves in yields.
- Fed communication: Language around inflation persistence and rate sensitivity will be closely parsed.
- Earnings guidance: Particularly in defense and energy-related sectors, where expectations have risen quickly.
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Meet the FI Capital Markets and Asset Class Specialist teams
The FI Capital Markets Strategy Group synthesizes economic analysis and market outlooks from across Fidelity to provide timely, actionable perspectives for financial advisors and institutional investors. Our Asset Class Specialist team offers in-depth analysis and positioning views focused on equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, including a range of ETF offerings.
Views expressed are as of the date indicated, based on the information available at that time, and may change based on market and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to update any of the information.
Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk.
These materials are provided for informational purposes only and should not be used or construed as a recommendation of any security, sector, or investment strategy.
Sectors and Industries are defined by Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS®), except where noted otherwise. S&P 500 sectors: Consumer Discretionary—companies that tend to be the most sensitive to economic cycles. Consumer Staples—companies whose businesses are less sensitive to economic cycles. Energy—companies whose businesses are dominated by either of the following activities: the construction or provision of oil rigs, drilling equipment, and other energy-related services and equipment; or the exploration, production, marketing, refining, and/or transportation of oil and gas products, coal, and consumable fuels. Financials—companies involved in activities such as banking, consumer finance, investment banking and brokerage, asset management, insurance and investments, and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs). Health Care—companies in two main industry groups: health care equipment suppliers, manufacturers, and providers of health care services; and companies involved in research, development, production, and marketing of pharmaceuticals and biotechnology products. Industrials—companies that manufacture and distribute capital goods, provide commercial services and supplies, or provide transportation services. Information Technology—companies in technology software and services and technology hardware and equipment. Materials—companies that engage in a wide range of commodity-related manufacturing. Real Estate—companies in real estate development, operations, and related services, as well as equity REITs. Communication Services—companies that facilitate communication and offer related content through various media. Utilities—companies considered electric, gas, or water utilities, or that operate as independent producers and/or distributors of power.
Dow Jones U.S. Select Aerospace & Defense Index. The index measures the performance of manufacturers, assemblers, and distributors of aircraft and aircraft parts primarily used in commercial or private air transport and producers of components and equipment for the defense industry, including military aircraft, radar equipment, and weapons.
Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response to adverse issuer, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Foreign securities are subject to interest rate, currency exchange rate, economic, and political risks, all of which are magnified in emerging markets.
The gold industry can be significantly affected by international monetary and political developments such as currency devaluations or revaluations, central bank movements, economic and social conditions within a country, trade imbalances, or trade or currency restrictions between countries, as well as supply and demand for gold and operational costs associated with mining.
In general, the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk, liquidity risk, call risk, and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.