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Insight & Outlook: Fidelity Market Signals Weekly

Introducing new weekly insights from Fidelity Institutional's (FI) Capital Markets Strategy Group covering the latest market trends, economic developments, and key factors shaping investment decisions—all to help you and your clients navigate the markets with confidence.

Understanding the adage, "buy the rumor, sell the news"

Markets have already priced in geopolitical risk and have moved on to fundamentals, reinforcing the importance of portfolio construction.

This past week is a reminder that markets don’t necessarily respond to geopolitical headlines the way conventional wisdom might suggest. Instead, they respond to what has already been priced in and how new information affects inflation, growth, and policy expectations.

Markets are ruthlessly efficient at exposing where the vulnerabilities are. Quite often, the susceptibilities are priced in even before the shock and impact, and when the market-moving event hits the tapes, the reaction function actually moves in the opposite direction. Hence the adage, “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

Exhibit 1 illustrates this trend, where gold, defense stocks, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury all rallied in the weeks leading up to the Iran conflict on February 28. Then, despite heightened headlines around the oil conflict, several “expected” trades moved in the opposite direction: gold pulled back, defense stocks consolidated, and Treasury yields moved higher. This reflected positioning and macro dynamics rather than a shift in underlying risk appetite.

Exhibit 1: Despite heightened headlines around the oil conflict, several “expected” trades moved in the opposite direction after the Iran conflict began on February 28.


Gold: Safe haven, but not a one-way trade

Gold initially rallied as geopolitical risk intensified, reflecting early positioning. As the conflict moved from speculation to reality, prices retraced amid profit-taking, a firmer U.S. dollar, and higher Treasury yields. In the current environment, gold’s short-term performance is being driven less by fear and more by:

  • Real interest rates
  • Liquidity conditions
  • Investor positioning

Portfolio perspective:

Gold continues to play an important role as a diversifier. Gold remains a core strategic asset, supported by fiscal dominance, global money supply growth, and geopolitical fragmentation. Near-term moves, however, are unlikely to be linear. Disciplined sizing and a longer-term view remain key.

10 year Treasury yields: Inflation still matters more than fear

Contrary to traditional risk-off behavior, Treasury yields rose during the escalation. Markets remain focused on the inflationary implications of energy volatility and how that feeds into monetary policy expectations.

This dynamic highlights an important shift:

  • Bonds are acting more as inflation barometers than geopolitical shock absorbers.
  • Duration sensitivity remains elevated when inflation risks re-emerge.

Portfolio perspective:

Fixed income positioning continues to require balance. Relying on bonds alone for downside protection may prove less effective in inflation-sensitive environments when stocks and bonds become positively correlated.

Defense stocks: Expectations meet valuations

Aerospace and defense stocks rallied earlier as markets anticipated increased defense spending tied to geopolitical developments. As those expectations became embedded in prices, momentum slowed. The focus has now shifted from headlines to fundamentals:

  • Contract visibility
  • Earnings delivery
  • Cash flow durability

Portfolio perspective:

Defense remains a structural global theme, but future returns will be more dependent on execution than escalation, hence active stock selection is key. Periods of consolidation should be viewed through a valuation and fundamentals lens.

Bottom line

Markets didn’t ignore geopolitical risk—they priced it early and moved on to fundamentals. For investors, this reinforces the importance of portfolio construction over prediction, especially when macro forces intersect with geopolitical events.

What we’re watching next week

Looking ahead, markets are likely to remain focused on a few key areas:

  • Energy prices: Sustained moves higher would keep inflation expectations—and rates—under pressure.
  • Inflation data: Any signs of re-acceleration could reinforce recent moves in yields.
  • Fed communication: Language around inflation persistence and rate sensitivity will be closely parsed.
  • Earnings guidance: Particularly in defense and energy-related sectors, where expectations have risen quickly.

Meet the FI Capital Markets and Asset Class Specialist teams

The FI Capital Markets Strategy Group synthesizes economic analysis and market outlooks from across Fidelity to provide timely, actionable perspectives for financial advisors and institutional investors. Our Asset Class Specialist team offers in-depth analysis and positioning views focused on equity, fixed income, and alternative investments, including a range of ETF offerings.

Michael Scarsciotti
SVP, Head of Investment Specialists
Brad Pineault
Vice President, Head of Capital Market Strategists
David Delleo
Vice President, Investment Insights
Mehernosh Engineer
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy
Anu Gaggar
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategy
Seth Marks
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategist
Bryan Sajjadi
Vice President, Capital Markets Strategist